Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Alaska Census changes, 2000 to 2010

Data time, people! Behold, tables:

 
Borough or Census area 2000 estimate 2010 estimate % change
Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area 6,551 5,588 -14.70%
Ketchikan Gateway Borough 14,070 13,477 -4.21%
Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area 6,146 5,559 -9.55%
Valdez-Cordova Census Area 10,195 9,636 -5.48%
Kodiak Island Borough 13,913 13,592 -2.31%
Bristol Bay Borough 1,258 997 -20.75%
Lake and Peninsula Borough 1,823 1,631 -10.53%
Yakutat City and Borough 808 662 -18.07%
Dillingham Census Area 4,922 4,847 -1.52%
Denali Borough 1,893 1,826 -3.54%
Sitka City and Borough 8,835 8,881 0.52%
Aleutians West Census Area 5,465 5,561 1.76%
Haines Borough 2,392 2,508 4.85%
Nome Census Area 9,196 9,492 3.22%
Northwest Arctic Borough 7,208 7,523 4.37%
Wade Hampton Census Area 7,028 7,459 6.13%
Aleutians East Borough 2,697 3,141 16.46%
Juneau City and Borough 30,711 31,275 1.84%
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area 6,174 7,029 13.85%
Bethel Census Area 16,006 17,013 6.29%
North Slope Borough 7,385 9,430 27.69%
Kenai Peninsula Borough 49,691 55,400 11.49%
Fairbanks North Star Borough 82,840 97,581 17.79%
Matanuska-Susitna Borough 59,322 88,995 50.02%
Anchorage Municipality 260,283 291,826 12.12%
Hoonah-Angoon Census Area 3,436 2,150 -14.79%
Skagway Municipality 968
Wrangell City and Borough 6,684 2,369 -21.11%
Petersburg Census Area 3,815
Statewide 626,932 710,231 13.29%

I have the table organized by the number of citizens gained or lost. Note that Hoonah/Skagway and Wrangell/Petersberg is reported differently between 2010 and 2000, so they take up two lines (Only one value in 2000 per either pair). What leaps out at me is most of the change comes from the MatSu - a wopping 50% change in population! Yikes! Fairbanks has also grown at an accelerated rate, but not nearly as much. I was wrong about the North Slope - it has a greater % change than the North West Borough. I was correct about the YK, but too conservative about the rate of growth since both major census districts topped 6% growth. I was too conservative about how horribly hard SE is getting hammered. Aside from Bristol Bay, the biggest percent changes were in SE. The biggest absolute change, though, was in the Yukon-Koyukuk area:


Borough or Census area Absolute Change Percent of State Change
Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area -963 -1.16%
Ketchikan Gateway Borough -593 -0.71%
Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area -587 -0.70%
Valdez-Cordova Census Area -559 -0.67%
Kodiak Island Borough -321 -0.39%
Bristol Bay Borough -261 -0.31%
Lake and Peninsula Borough -192 -0.23%
Yakutat City and Borough -146 -0.18%
Dillingham Census Area -75 -0.09%
Denali Borough -67 -0.08%
Sitka City and Borough 46 0.06%
Aleutians West Census Area 96 0.12%
Haines Borough 116 0.14%
Nome Census Area 296 0.36%
Northwest Arctic Borough 315 0.38%
Wade Hampton Census Area 431 0.52%
Aleutians East Borough 444 0.53%
Juneau City and Borough 564 0.68%
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area 855 1.03%
Bethel Census Area 1,007 1.21%
North Slope Borough 2,045 2.46%
Kenai Peninsula Borough 5,709 6.85%
Fairbanks North Star Borough 14,741 17.70%
Matanuska-Susitna Borough 29,673 35.62%
Anchorage Municipality 31,543 37.87%
Hoonah-Angoon Census Area -318 -0.38%
Skagway Municipality
Wrangell City and Borough -500 -0.60%
Petersburg Census Area
Statewide 83,299 n/a

Anchorage had the greatest growth (Gold star for me) followed by MatSu and Fairbanks and the Kenai. Juneau, as I anticipated, remains essentially flat. I might have to double back on the Rural-to-Urban migration idea. There's 214 more rural residents than there were in 2010, which is a minuscule increase. Either there's more immigration than emigration, but elevated death to compensate, or births are higher than deaths, and there's a net emigration. The second scenario seems more likely.

Why didn't this show up in the school enrolment records in Anchorage? Well, it could be that people more likely to move don't have children yet, or maybe they're not all moving to Anchorage. Or, what I think is most likely - there's serious flaws in how we calculate enrolment in schools, where students from the bush are more likely to skip classes (true) and therefore not be reflected in the annual counts. This downward biases the enrolment numbers, and therefore funding, of schools with the students who need the most help.

But, that's navel gazing and guesswork. The real way to address this is to follow individuals, not counts of individuals. Census summaries we have access to can't show that that +1 person in the Kenai came from Juneau as opposed to Kansas. You need to do a more detailed breakdown than that to find those sorts of trends.

Finally, on the diversity front, diversity increased slightly (69% White to 66% White descent) mostly to an additional 1 percent more people of Asian descent, and a grab-bag of other.

There's a lot of information here, and I've barely played around with it. Hopefully, I'll get more time to dig deep into this well of information in the next little bit.

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