Borough or Census area | 2000 estimate | 2010 estimate | % change |
Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area | 6,551 | 5,588 | -14.70% |
Ketchikan Gateway Borough | 14,070 | 13,477 | -4.21% |
Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area | 6,146 | 5,559 | -9.55% |
Valdez-Cordova Census Area | 10,195 | 9,636 | -5.48% |
Kodiak Island Borough | 13,913 | 13,592 | -2.31% |
Bristol Bay Borough | 1,258 | 997 | -20.75% |
Lake and Peninsula Borough | 1,823 | 1,631 | -10.53% |
Yakutat City and Borough | 808 | 662 | -18.07% |
Dillingham Census Area | 4,922 | 4,847 | -1.52% |
Denali Borough | 1,893 | 1,826 | -3.54% |
Sitka City and Borough | 8,835 | 8,881 | 0.52% |
Aleutians West Census Area | 5,465 | 5,561 | 1.76% |
Haines Borough | 2,392 | 2,508 | 4.85% |
Nome Census Area | 9,196 | 9,492 | 3.22% |
Northwest Arctic Borough | 7,208 | 7,523 | 4.37% |
Wade Hampton Census Area | 7,028 | 7,459 | 6.13% |
Aleutians East Borough | 2,697 | 3,141 | 16.46% |
Juneau City and Borough | 30,711 | 31,275 | 1.84% |
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area | 6,174 | 7,029 | 13.85% |
Bethel Census Area | 16,006 | 17,013 | 6.29% |
North Slope Borough | 7,385 | 9,430 | 27.69% |
Kenai Peninsula Borough | 49,691 | 55,400 | 11.49% |
Fairbanks North Star Borough | 82,840 | 97,581 | 17.79% |
Matanuska-Susitna Borough | 59,322 | 88,995 | 50.02% |
Anchorage Municipality | 260,283 | 291,826 | 12.12% |
Hoonah-Angoon Census Area | 3,436 | 2,150 | -14.79% |
Skagway Municipality | 968 | ||
Wrangell City and Borough | 6,684 | 2,369 | -21.11% |
Petersburg Census Area | 3,815 | ||
Statewide | 626,932 | 710,231 | 13.29% |
I have the table organized by the number of citizens gained or lost. Note that Hoonah/Skagway and Wrangell/Petersberg is reported differently between 2010 and 2000, so they take up two lines (Only one value in 2000 per either pair). What leaps out at me is most of the change comes from the MatSu - a wopping 50% change in population! Yikes! Fairbanks has also grown at an accelerated rate, but not nearly as much. I was wrong about the North Slope - it has a greater % change than the North West Borough. I was correct about the YK, but too conservative about the rate of growth since both major census districts topped 6% growth. I was too conservative about how horribly hard SE is getting hammered. Aside from Bristol Bay, the biggest percent changes were in SE. The biggest absolute change, though, was in the Yukon-Koyukuk area:
Borough or Census area | Absolute Change | Percent of State Change |
Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area | -963 | -1.16% |
Ketchikan Gateway Borough | -593 | -0.71% |
Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area | -587 | -0.70% |
Valdez-Cordova Census Area | -559 | -0.67% |
Kodiak Island Borough | -321 | -0.39% |
Bristol Bay Borough | -261 | -0.31% |
Lake and Peninsula Borough | -192 | -0.23% |
Yakutat City and Borough | -146 | -0.18% |
Dillingham Census Area | -75 | -0.09% |
Denali Borough | -67 | -0.08% |
Sitka City and Borough | 46 | 0.06% |
Aleutians West Census Area | 96 | 0.12% |
Haines Borough | 116 | 0.14% |
Nome Census Area | 296 | 0.36% |
Northwest Arctic Borough | 315 | 0.38% |
Wade Hampton Census Area | 431 | 0.52% |
Aleutians East Borough | 444 | 0.53% |
Juneau City and Borough | 564 | 0.68% |
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area | 855 | 1.03% |
Bethel Census Area | 1,007 | 1.21% |
North Slope Borough | 2,045 | 2.46% |
Kenai Peninsula Borough | 5,709 | 6.85% |
Fairbanks North Star Borough | 14,741 | 17.70% |
Matanuska-Susitna Borough | 29,673 | 35.62% |
Anchorage Municipality | 31,543 | 37.87% |
Hoonah-Angoon Census Area | -318 | -0.38% |
Skagway Municipality | ||
Wrangell City and Borough | -500 | -0.60% |
Petersburg Census Area | ||
Statewide | 83,299 | n/a |
Anchorage had the greatest growth (Gold star for me) followed by MatSu and Fairbanks and the Kenai. Juneau, as I anticipated, remains essentially flat. I might have to double back on the Rural-to-Urban migration idea. There's 214 more rural residents than there were in 2010, which is a minuscule increase. Either there's more immigration than emigration, but elevated death to compensate, or births are higher than deaths, and there's a net emigration. The second scenario seems more likely.
Why didn't this show up in the school enrolment records in Anchorage? Well, it could be that people more likely to move don't have children yet, or maybe they're not all moving to Anchorage. Or, what I think is most likely - there's serious flaws in how we calculate enrolment in schools, where students from the bush are more likely to skip classes (true) and therefore not be reflected in the annual counts. This downward biases the enrolment numbers, and therefore funding, of schools with the students who need the most help.
But, that's navel gazing and guesswork. The real way to address this is to follow individuals, not counts of individuals. Census summaries we have access to can't show that that +1 person in the Kenai came from Juneau as opposed to Kansas. You need to do a more detailed breakdown than that to find those sorts of trends.
Finally, on the diversity front, diversity increased slightly (69% White to 66% White descent) mostly to an additional 1 percent more people of Asian descent, and a grab-bag of other.
There's a lot of information here, and I've barely played around with it. Hopefully, I'll get more time to dig deep into this well of information in the next little bit.
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