Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Before the AK census data

The AK census data will be posted today at 10am, AKDT.  Before they post it, I want to make some minor predictions about what the data will show.

This is like the Nenana ice classic, except I don't get anything if I'm right.  ;)

Big winners - Anchorage and Fairbanks. Juneau will remain relatively flat (less than 2% growth if any). In South East, some of the islands in the Alexander archipelago will show a decline; I'd be surprised if it's more than 5%. The YK will show flat to moderate growth (the couple of districts will show 1-5% growth). North-West (Kotz area etc) will show some minor growth, while North Slope will shrink slightly.

I'm torn - I know the nation, as a whole, is diversifying. But the big drivers in state population are migrants to Fairbanks and Anchorage/Matsu, who are predominantly white. So whether the state follows the trend and becomes more diverse depends on the exact balance between internal growth and migration.

I strongly think the data will not reflect a rural to urban migration like people (including me) were suggesting a few years back. I think the preliminary data in the form of enrolment makes that dubious - total rural migration will be small, or zero.

And, as a wild card prediction, Anvik will become the new state capital, stunning the rest of the state. In your face, Juneau!

1 comment:

Unknown said...

It is the time that Bears get active and are looking for food or other Bears. If they run across a Hiker there could be trouble. The Hiker enjoys the Wildlife and does not wish to shoot them. So he whips out his Bear Mace Spray and Sprays the Bear with the Bear Repellent Spray and moves out of the Area. That is a Fogger Spray which will reach up to 30 feet. It is supposed to settle on the Bear around the head area and discourage them. It would give the hiker to get to safety.
bear mace
Other Bear Defense Spray is a hot pepper spray. It is registered with the EPA as a repellent for all species of Bears. It is considered on of the most effective and powerful of all Bear Pepper Sprays.
Dog Defense Spray is also made by Mace. Walkers, joggers and cyclists should consider something like this to have with them when the Dogs come around. It will spray up to 10 feet. I would suggest stopping long enough to be accurate with the spray and then get out of the area. The eyes of the Dog would be the best target.

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