Tuesday, 26 August 2008

Pre-Election Guesses!

It's primary day, it's the day we'll finally stop hearing about %*&ing 4 and 2 on the radio nonstop. I'd like to submit a proposal for a moratorium on all mud-slinging and TV name-calling, with the penalty for failing to do so being shot from a snow machine or helicopter by annoyed me.

This also means it's time to wow everyone with my powers of prognostication. AKA, let's see how full of crap I am (hint: Quite full!). Here's my predictions for the winners, how much they'll win by, and my prediction's margin of error. So long as the actual value is within the MOE, I'll be fairly pleased.

Senate: (r)
Stevens: 20% ±10%

Senate: (d)
Begich: 30% ±15%

US REP: (r)
Young: 5%±20%

US REP: (d)
Berkowitz: 15%±10%

Alaska House 8:
Both Candidates run unopposed.

Alaska Senate D:
No election this period.

That's my predictions. I really think the Rep (R) race will be tightest, but I don't know enough about how much Parnell will be able to muster his troops to make a guess on this. The problem with this race is I hear too much about Parnell's campaign, and not enough about Young's. I do think, baring an indictment, this is effectively Young's re-election bid. If he wins, barring something radical, Berkowitz doesn't stand a chance.

Prop1: No 20%±10%
Prop2: Yes 5%±15%
Prop3: Yes 10%±25%
Prop4: Yes 5%±15%

Why do my prop4 numbers differ from the recent poll? Well, within their stated MOE (which is actually statistically derived, and not just a statement of how much they pulled it out of the air like I did), we actually have some agreement. Additionally, I think that poll suffers from dodgy methodology, and systematically excluded those without phones - I'm thinking of a number of villages where where prop 4 is very unpopular, but don't have 100% phone representation. You can't just use the regional Corp's stance on the issue for a proxy for the shareholders, either, as there can be a deep disconnect between the Regional Corp and the Shareholders due to interesting circumstances that I won't go into here.

I'll see if I eat humble pie tomorrow. I have my fork ready! :)

No comments: